Dnipro-1 1-0 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chornomorets make the trip to Stadion Avanhard to face Dnipro-1 in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 October 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Dnipro-1 (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Avanhard, Dnipro-1 have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Avanhard.
Chornomorets have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Dnipro-1. A 2.20 PPG lead over Chornomorets (2.80 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dnipro-1 lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2021, ended 3–1 with Dnipro-1 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Dnipro-1 — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Chornomorets — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dnipro-1 35% versus Chornomorets 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Dnipro-1 65% | Chornomorets 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dnipro-1 1.87 xG and Chornomorets 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dnipro-1 attack 1.470 / defence 0.778 | Chornomorets attack 0.913 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.227 / away 1.272. Dnipro-1 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.470 — their λ of 1.87 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Dnipro-1's defence rating of 0.778 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 26 Dnipro-1 games / 26 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dnipro-1 60% | Draw 22% | Chornomorets 18%. Fair-value odds: Dnipro-1 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Chornomorets 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Dnipro-1 (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dnipro-1 are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Dnipro-1 40% | Chornomorets 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dnipro-1 60% | Draw 22% | Chornomorets 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 50% | xG Dnipro-1 1.87 / Chornomorets 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Dnipro-1 attack 1.470 / def 0.778 | Chornomorets attack 0.913 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.227 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Dnipro-1 xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Chornomorets xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets kick off?
Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets?
Dnipro-1 1 - 0 Chornomorets.
Where is Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets part of?
Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Dnipro-1 a 60% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dnipro-1 and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Chornomorets?
Record (2 meetings): Dnipro-1 2W | Draws 0 | Chornomorets 0W.
What form are Dnipro-1 and Chornomorets in?
Dnipro-1 (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Chornomorets (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dnipro-1's attacking strength (1.47x league average) is weighed against Chornomorets's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. Flip it around — Chornomorets's attack (0.91x) against Dnipro-1's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
60%
1.66
22%
4.51
18%
5.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Dnipro-1 xG
Total xG
2.78
0.90
Chornomorets xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
5.65
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
41%
2.47
15%
6.50
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
3%
36.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 10.5 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Dnipro-1 and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Dnipro-1 and 0.90 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dnipro-1 come into this having played 26 games, going 20W 2D 4L for 2.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chornomorets sit at 0.65 PPG from 26 outings (3W 8D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dnipro-1 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.73 PPG clear of Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Dnipro-1's home form reads 10W 1D 1L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Chornomorets have taken 0.58 points per game from 12 outings (1W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dnipro-1 are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 0.96 scored and 2.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chornomorets in 62%.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dnipro-1
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dnipro-1 and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Dnipro-1 have gone 20W 2D 4L in their last 26 games (2.38 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 3W 8D 15L in their last 26 (0.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dnipro-1 at home or Chornomorets away?
Dnipro-1's home record (2.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dnipro-1 at home: 2.58 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.58 PPG.
Have Dnipro-1 or Chornomorets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Chornomorets in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Dnipro-1 have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dnipro-1 won 0-3 on 31 Jul 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dnipro-1 have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Dnipro-1
0
Draws
0
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Chornomorets?
From 6 meetings on record, Dnipro-1 have won 6, Chornomorets have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dnipro-1 and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when Chornomorets 0-2 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between Dnipro-1 and Chornomorets?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dnipro-1 33%, Chornomorets 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Dnipro-1 and 75% for Chornomorets. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Chornomorets in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dnipro-1 home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dnipro-1 play Chornomorets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Dnipro-1's recent matches and 67% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Dnipro-1's matches and 75% of Chornomorets's.
Do Dnipro-1 and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Dnipro-1 have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dnipro-1 edge out Chornomorets 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat Chornomorets 1-0 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dnipro-1 1.87 xG and Chornomorets 0.90 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dnipro-1 fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Chornomorets landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dnipro-1 attack 1.47 / defence 0.78 against Chornomorets attack 0.91 / defence 1.04, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dnipro-1 60% | Draw 22% | Chornomorets 18%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dnipro-1 65%, Chornomorets 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dnipro-1's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Chornomorets's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 0.65. Form held, and they took the win. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.