Desna vs Minai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Desna at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Desna vs Minai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Minai make the trip to Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv to face Desna in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Desna (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Desna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Desna's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 3L across 9 games at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv this term (1.56 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.56 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Desna are significantly better at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv than their overall form suggests.
Minai have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Minai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Minai away from home this season: 0W 2D 7L from 9 away games — 0.22 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.44 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Desna's favour (0.90 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Desna lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Desna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Minai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Desna 44% versus Minai 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Desna 56% | Minai 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Desna 1.46 xG and Minai 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Desna attack 0.979 / defence 1.232 | Minai attack 0.721 / defence 1.348. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.223. Minai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.348 — this is suppressing Desna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Desna games / 18 Minai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Desna 46% | Draw 26% | Minai 28%. Fair-value odds: Desna 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Minai 3.57. Desna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Desna are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Desna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Desna 44% | Minai 33% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Desna vs Minai | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Desna 46% | Draw 26% | Minai 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Desna 1.46 / Minai 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Desna attack 0.979 / def 1.232 | Minai attack 0.721 / def 1.348 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Desna (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Desna xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Minai xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Desna vs Minai kick off?
Desna vs Minai kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv.
Where is Desna vs Minai being played?
The match is being played at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv.
What competition is Desna vs Minai part of?
Desna vs Minai is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Desna vs Minai?
Our statistical model gives Desna a 46% chance of winning, Minai a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Desna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Desna vs Minai?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Desna and Minai will score (BTTS).
Will Desna vs Minai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Desna and Minai?
Record (1 meetings): Desna 0W | Draws 1 | Minai 0W.
What form are Desna and Minai in?
Desna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Minai (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Desna's attack at 0.98x the league average against Minai's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Minai's attack (0.72x) against Desna's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Desna Win
46%
2.19
26%
3.82
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Desna xG
Total xG
2.54
1.09
Minai xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
7%
15.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.4 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Desna vs Minai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Desna and Minai expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Desna and 1.09 for Minai, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Desna vs Minai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Desna come into this having played 18 games, going 7W 4D 7L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Desna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Minai sit at 0.56 PPG from 18 outings (1W 7D 10L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Minai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Desna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Minai — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Desna's home form reads 4W 2D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Minai have taken 0.22 points per game from 9 outings (0W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Desna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Desna are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Minai are on 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Desna
Blended
Minai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Desna and Minai in coming into this match?
Desna have gone 7W 4D 7L in their last 18 games (1.39 PPG), while Minai have gone 1W 7D 10L in their last 18 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Desna at home or Minai away?
Desna's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Desna at home: 1.56 PPG; Minai away: 0.22 PPG.
Have Desna or Minai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Desna have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Minai in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Desna
1
Draws
0
Minai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Desna and Minai?
From 1 meetings on record, Desna have won 0, Minai have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Desna and Minai last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2021, when Minai 0-0 Desna.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Desna see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Minai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Desna 44%, Minai 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Desna) and 44% (Minai).
On the defensive side: Desna keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Minai in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Desna home games / Minai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Desna play Minai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Desna's recent matches and 33% of Minai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Desna vs Minai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Desna's recent games and 44% of Minai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Desna and Minai tend to score early?
Desna have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Minai in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Desna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv, Regular Season - 26, as Desna and Minai drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Desna 1.46 xG and Minai 1.09 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Desna fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Minai landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Desna attack 0.98 / defence 1.23 against Minai attack 0.72 / defence 1.35, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Desna 46% | Draw 26% | Minai 28%, with Desna to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Desna 56%, Minai 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Desna's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Minai's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Desna arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.56. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Desna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Minai (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.