Chornomorets vs Minai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs Minai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Chornomorets welcome Minai to Stadion Chornomorets. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Chornomorets have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets's home record at Stadion Chornomorets: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Minai — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Minai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Minai have posted 0W 2D 7L from 9 away outings — 0.22 PPG. Away from home they average 0.44 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
On current form, Chornomorets have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (0.90 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Chornomorets, 0 for Minai and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Chornomorets trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Minai trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 61% versus Minai 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 72% | Minai 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.46 xG and Minai 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.943 / defence 1.455 | Minai attack 0.689 / defence 1.404. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.220. Minai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.404 — this is suppressing Chornomorets's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Chornomorets games / 18 Minai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 43% | Draw 26% | Minai 32%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Minai 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chornomorets as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chornomorets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Chornomorets 60% | Minai 33%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Minai | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 43% | Draw 26% | Minai 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Chornomorets 1.46 / Minai 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.943 / def 1.455 | Minai attack 0.689 / def 1.404 | league avg home 1.106 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Minai xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Minai kick off?
Chornomorets vs Minai kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Stadion Chornomorets.
Where is Chornomorets vs Minai being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Minai part of?
Chornomorets vs Minai is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Minai?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 43% chance of winning, Minai a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Minai?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Chornomorets and Minai will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Minai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Minai?
Record (1 meetings): Chornomorets 0W | Draws 1 | Minai 0W.
What form are Chornomorets and Minai in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Minai (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chornomorets's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Minai's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Minai's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
43%
2.34
26%
3.90
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.69
1.22
Minai xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
13%
7.95
7%
13.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Minai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Minai expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.22 for Minai, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Minai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chornomorets's recent record stands at 3W 5D 10L from 18 games, a 0.78 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Minai, meanwhile, have gone 1W 7D 10L across 18 games — 0.56 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Minai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chornomorets on 0.78 PPG, Minai on 0.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Chornomorets have managed 2W 3D 4L from 9 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Minai's away record stands at 0W 2D 7L across 9 trips, a 0.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chornomorets come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chornomorets are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game recently; Minai are on 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chornomorets have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Minai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Minai in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 3W 5D 10L in their last 18 games (0.78 PPG), while Minai have gone 1W 7D 10L in their last 18 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Minai away?
Chornomorets's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.00 PPG; Minai away: 0.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Chornomorets won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chornomorets's record when hosting Minai specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Chornomorets
1
Draws
2
Minai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Minai?
From 5 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 2, Minai have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Minai last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Minai 2-0 Chornomorets.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Minai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 67%, Minai 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Chornomorets) and 44% (Minai).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets have failed to score in 33% of games; Minai in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Minai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Minai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 33% of Minai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Minai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Chornomorets's recent games and 44% of Minai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Minai tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Minai in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Chornomorets's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 22, as Chornomorets and Minai drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.46 xG and Minai 1.22 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chornomorets fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Minai landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.94 / defence 1.46 against Minai attack 0.69 / defence 1.40, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 43% | Draw 26% | Minai 32%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 72%, Minai 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Minai's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chornomorets 0.78 PPG, Minai 0.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line. Minai (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.