Chornomorets 0-3 Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Dynamo Kyiv travel to Stadion Chornomorets to take on Chornomorets. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 November 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Chornomorets have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stadion Chornomorets this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dynamo Kyiv stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Dynamo Kyiv have posted 8W 0D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dynamo Kyiv are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Chornomorets, 1 for Dynamo Kyiv and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 7.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Nov 2021, ended 1–6 with Dynamo Kyiv winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Chornomorets trading profile (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Dynamo Kyiv trading profile (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 62% versus Dynamo Kyiv 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 62% | Dynamo Kyiv 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.12 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.760 / defence 1.263 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.047 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.254. Chornomorets's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Chornomorets games / 26 Dynamo Kyiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 26% | Draw 24% | Dynamo Kyiv 50%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 3.85 | Draw 4.17 | Dynamo Kyiv 2.00. Dynamo Kyiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dynamo Kyiv at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 60% | Dynamo Kyiv 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 26% | Draw 24% | Dynamo Kyiv 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Chornomorets 1.12 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.760 / def 1.263 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.047 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Dynamo Kyiv xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Chornomorets 0 - 3 Dynamo Kyiv.
Where is Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 26% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 50% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv?
Record (1 meetings): Chornomorets 0W | Draws 0 | Dynamo Kyiv 1W.
What form are Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chornomorets's attack at 0.76x the league average against Dynamo Kyiv's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo Kyiv's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
26%
3.88
24%
4.11
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.78
1.66
Dynamo Kyiv xG
3.88
26%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
19%
5.25
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
5%
20.38
16%
6.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.66 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chornomorets's recent record stands at 3W 8D 15L from 26 games, a 0.65 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Kyiv, meanwhile, have gone 18W 4D 4L across 26 games — 2.23 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dynamo Kyiv by 1.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chornomorets heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chornomorets have managed 2W 4D 6L from 12 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dynamo Kyiv's away record stands at 9W 1D 2L across 12 trips, a 2.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chornomorets are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 2.27 scored and 0.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chornomorets have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 3W 8D 15L in their last 26 games (0.65 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 18W 4D 4L in their last 26 (2.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Dynamo Kyiv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 0.83 PPG; Dynamo Kyiv away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Chornomorets or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Nov 2021, when Dynamo Kyiv won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chornomorets's record when hosting Dynamo Kyiv specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Chornomorets
1
Draws
4
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv?
From 7 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 2, Dynamo Kyiv have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Chornomorets 1-1 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 67%, Dynamo Kyiv 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chornomorets) and 58% (Dynamo Kyiv).
On the defensive side: Dynamo Kyiv in 42%; Chornomorets have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Dynamo Kyiv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Chornomorets's games and 58% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Chornomorets's recent games and 58% of Dynamo Kyiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Dynamo Kyiv in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dynamo Kyiv run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Chornomorets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Chornomorets 0-3 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.12 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.66 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Chornomorets fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Dynamo Kyiv outscored their 1.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.76 / defence 1.26 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.05 / defence 1.11, drawn from 27/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 26% | Draw 24% | Dynamo Kyiv 50%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 62%, Dynamo Kyiv 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 0.65. That form edge translated into the three points. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.