Chornomorets 1-6 Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Dynamo Kyiv travel to Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky to take on Chornomorets. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 November 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Chornomorets have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 3L across 7 games at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky this term (0.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dynamo Kyiv stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Dynamo Kyiv have posted 5W 1D 0L from 6 away outings — 2.67 PPG. They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dynamo Kyiv are 1.70 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Chornomorets trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Dynamo Kyiv trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 57% versus Dynamo Kyiv 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 71% | Dynamo Kyiv 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.17 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 2.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 1.003 / defence 1.526 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.214 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.067 / away 1.230. Dynamo Kyiv have an above-average attack strength of 1.214 — the away xG of 2.28 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 14 Chornomorets games / 14 Dynamo Kyiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 18% | Draw 21% | Dynamo Kyiv 62%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 5.56 | Draw 4.76 | Dynamo Kyiv 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Dynamo Kyiv (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.17 / 2.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dynamo Kyiv at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 57% | Dynamo Kyiv 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky • Kick-off: Friday 19 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 18% | Draw 21% | Dynamo Kyiv 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 63% | xG Chornomorets 1.17 / Dynamo Kyiv 2.28 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 1.003 / def 1.526 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.214 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.067 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
2.28
Dynamo Kyiv xG
63%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 19 November 2021 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Chornomorets 1 - 6 Dynamo Kyiv.
Where is Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 18% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 62% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chornomorets's attack at 1.00x the league average against Dynamo Kyiv's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo Kyiv's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 2.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
18%
5.63
21%
4.84
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
0 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
3.45
2.28
Dynamo Kyiv xG
5.63
18%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
10%
9.77
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
2%
54.99
19%
5.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 7.2 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Chornomorets and 2.28 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chornomorets's recent record stands at 2W 5D 7L from 14 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Kyiv, meanwhile, have gone 11W 2D 1L across 14 games — 2.50 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dynamo Kyiv by 1.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chornomorets heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chornomorets have managed 1W 3D 2L from 6 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dynamo Kyiv's away record stands at 5W 1D 0L across 6 trips, a 2.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chornomorets are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 2.50 scored and 0.50 conceded.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv in 64% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 2W 5D 7L in their last 14 games (0.79 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 11W 2D 1L in their last 14 (2.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Dynamo Kyiv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's away record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.00 PPG; Dynamo Kyiv away: 2.67 PPG.
Have Chornomorets or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 64%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Nov 2021, when Dynamo Kyiv won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chornomorets's record when hosting Dynamo Kyiv specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Chornomorets
1
Draws
4
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv?
From 7 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 2, Dynamo Kyiv have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Chornomorets 1-1 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Chornomorets at 67%, Dynamo Kyiv at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chornomorets) and 50% (Dynamo Kyiv).
On the defensive side: Dynamo Kyiv in 33%; Chornomorets have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Dynamo Kyiv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Chornomorets's games and 67% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Chornomorets's recent games and 50% of Dynamo Kyiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dynamo Kyiv in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dynamo Kyiv run riot with a 1-6 hammering of Chornomorets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Chornomorets 1-6 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.17 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 2.28 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 1-6 for 7 actual goals. Dynamo Kyiv outscored their 2.28 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 1.00 / defence 1.53 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.21 / defence 1.09, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 18% | Draw 21% | Dynamo Kyiv 62%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 71%, Dynamo Kyiv 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.79. That form edge translated into the three points. Chornomorets (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.