Yeni Malatyaspor 2-3 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Yeni Malatyaspor vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Konyaspor make the trip to Yeni Malatya Stadyumu to face Yeni Malatyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Yeni Malatyaspor (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Yeni Malatyaspor have posted 1W 3D 6L at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Konyaspor have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Konyaspor's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Konyaspor are 0.90 PPG clear of Yeni Malatyaspor in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.30 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Yeni Malatyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Konyaspor in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Yeni Malatyaspor lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Yeni Malatyaspor — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Yeni Malatyaspor 33% versus Konyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yeni Malatyaspor 33% | Konyaspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yeni Malatyaspor 1.17 xG and Konyaspor 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.671 / defence 1.380 | Konyaspor attack 0.954 / defence 1.411. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.237. Yeni Malatyaspor's attack strength of 0.671 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Konyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.411 — this is suppressing Yeni Malatyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Yeni Malatyaspor games / 33 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 25% | Draw 29% | Konyaspor 46%. Fair-value odds: Yeni Malatyaspor 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Konyaspor 2.17. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Yeni Malatyaspor 60% | Konyaspor 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yeni Malatyaspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Yeni Malatya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 25% | Draw 29% | Konyaspor 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Yeni Malatyaspor 1.17 / Konyaspor 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.671 / def 1.380 | Konyaspor attack 0.954 / def 1.411 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Konyaspor xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yeni Malatyaspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Yeni Malatyaspor 2 - 3 Konyaspor.
Where is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What competition is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Yeni Malatyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Yeni Malatyaspor a 25% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Yeni Malatyaspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Yeni Malatyaspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Konyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Yeni Malatyaspor 0W | Draws 1 | Konyaspor 0W.
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Konyaspor in?
Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Yeni Malatyaspor's attack at 0.67x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (0.95x) against Yeni Malatyaspor's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
25%
3.96
29%
3.48
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Total xG
2.80
1.63
Konyaspor xG
3.96
25%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
5%
20.19
14%
6.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.9 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Yeni Malatyaspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Yeni Malatyaspor and 1.63 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 33 outings, Yeni Malatyaspor have picked up 0.61 PPG on a 5W 5D 23L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Konyaspor's form line: 18W 7D 8L from 33 games, 1.85 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Konyaspor are the form team by 1.24 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Yeni Malatyaspor.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Yeni Malatyaspor have posted 0.75 PPG from 16 outings (3W 3D 10L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 6W 3D 7L from 16 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Konyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Yeni Malatyaspor are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.70 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Konyaspor in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yeni Malatyaspor
Current Season
Konyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 5W 5D 23L in their last 33 games (0.61 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 18W 7D 8L in their last 33 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yeni Malatyaspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Konyaspor's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yeni Malatyaspor at home: 0.75 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Yeni Malatyaspor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Yeni Malatyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Yeni Malatyaspor
1
Draws
1
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Konyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 0, Konyaspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yeni Malatyaspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2022, when Yeni Malatyaspor 2-3 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Yeni Malatyaspor and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Yeni Malatyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yeni Malatyaspor 56%, Konyaspor 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Yeni Malatyaspor) and 62% (Konyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Yeni Malatyaspor have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yeni Malatyaspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yeni Malatyaspor play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Yeni Malatyaspor's games and 69% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Yeni Malatyaspor's matches and 62% of Konyaspor's.
Do Yeni Malatyaspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Yeni Malatyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Konyaspor edge out Yeni Malatyaspor 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Yeni Malatyaspor 2-3 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yeni Malatyaspor 1.17 xG and Konyaspor 1.63 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Yeni Malatyaspor beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Konyaspor outscored their 1.63 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.67 / defence 1.38 against Konyaspor attack 0.95 / defence 1.41, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yeni Malatyaspor 25% | Draw 29% | Konyaspor 46%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yeni Malatyaspor 33%, Konyaspor 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yeni Malatyaspor's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.61. Form held, and they took the win. Yeni Malatyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.