Yeni Malatyaspor 0-0 Galatasaray – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Galatasaray at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Yeni Malatyaspor vs Galatasaray encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Galatasaray make the trip to Yeni Malatya Stadyumu to face Yeni Malatyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Yeni Malatyaspor have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Yeni Malatyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Yeni Malatyaspor have posted 2W 0D 5L at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu — 0.86 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Galatasaray (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Galatasaray, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Galatasaray's away record: 2W 3D 2L from 7 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.29 PPG). Away from home they average 1.57 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Galatasaray are 0.80 PPG clear of Yeni Malatyaspor in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.40 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Yeni Malatyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Galatasaray goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Yeni Malatyaspor 31% versus Galatasaray 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yeni Malatyaspor 38% | Galatasaray 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yeni Malatyaspor 1.38 xG and Galatasaray 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.890 / defence 1.636 | Galatasaray attack 0.997 / defence 1.312. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.115. Galatasaray bring a strong defensive rating of 1.312 — this is suppressing Yeni Malatyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Yeni Malatyaspor games / 13 Galatasaray games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 29% | Draw 24% | Galatasaray 47%. Fair-value odds: Yeni Malatyaspor 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Galatasaray 2.13. Galatasaray hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Galatasaray at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Galatasaray if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Yeni Malatyaspor 57% | Galatasaray 71% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yeni Malatyaspor vs Galatasaray | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Yeni Malatya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 29% | Draw 24% | Galatasaray 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Yeni Malatyaspor 1.38 / Galatasaray 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.890 / def 1.636 | Galatasaray attack 0.997 / def 1.312 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Galatasaray (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Galatasaray xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yeni Malatyaspor vs Galatasaray kick off?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Galatasaray kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Yeni Malatyaspor 0 - 0 Galatasaray.
Where is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Galatasaray being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What competition is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Galatasaray part of?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Galatasaray is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Yeni Malatyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Our statistical model gives Yeni Malatyaspor a 29% chance of winning, Galatasaray a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Galatasaray the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Yeni Malatyaspor and Galatasaray will score (BTTS).
Will Yeni Malatyaspor vs Galatasaray have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Galatasaray?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Galatasaray in?
Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Galatasaray (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Yeni Malatyaspor's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Galatasaray's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Galatasaray's attack (1.00x) against Yeni Malatyaspor's defence (1.64x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Galatasaray Win
29%
3.46
24%
4.24
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Total xG
3.20
1.82
Galatasaray xG
3.46
29%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
16%
6.17
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
5%
21.31
12%
8.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Yeni Malatyaspor and Galatasaray expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Yeni Malatyaspor and 1.82 for Galatasaray, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Yeni Malatyaspor's recent record stands at 4W 0D 9L from 13 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Yeni Malatyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Galatasaray, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 4L across 13 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Galatasaray is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Galatasaray by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Yeni Malatyaspor heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Yeni Malatyaspor have managed 2W 0D 5L from 7 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Galatasaray's away record stands at 2W 3D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Galatasaray come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Yeni Malatyaspor are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Galatasaray are on 1.46 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Galatasaray in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yeni Malatyaspor
Blended
Galatasaray
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Galatasaray in coming into this match?
Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 4W 0D 9L in their last 13 games (0.92 PPG), while Galatasaray have gone 6W 3D 4L in their last 13 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yeni Malatyaspor at home or Galatasaray away?
Galatasaray's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yeni Malatyaspor at home: 0.86 PPG; Galatasaray away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Yeni Malatyaspor
1
Draws
1
Galatasaray
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Galatasaray?
From 2 meetings on record, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 0, Galatasaray have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yeni Malatyaspor and Galatasaray last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2022, when Galatasaray 2-0 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Yeni Malatyaspor and Galatasaray?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Yeni Malatyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yeni Malatyaspor 57%, Galatasaray 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Yeni Malatyaspor and 71% for Galatasaray. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Yeni Malatyaspor have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yeni Malatyaspor home games / Galatasaray away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yeni Malatyaspor play Galatasaray?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Yeni Malatyaspor's games and 71% of Galatasaray's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Galatasaray usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Yeni Malatyaspor's matches and 71% of Galatasaray's.
Do Yeni Malatyaspor and Galatasaray tend to score early?
Yeni Malatyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Galatasaray in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Yeni Malatyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, as Yeni Malatyaspor and Galatasaray drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yeni Malatyaspor 1.38 xG and Galatasaray 1.82 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Yeni Malatyaspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Galatasaray landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.89 / defence 1.64 against Galatasaray attack 1.00 / defence 1.31, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yeni Malatyaspor 29% | Draw 24% | Galatasaray 47%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yeni Malatyaspor 38%, Galatasaray 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yeni Malatyaspor's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Galatasaray's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Yeni Malatyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line. Galatasaray (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.