Yeni Malatyaspor 1-2 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Göztepe at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Yeni Malatyaspor vs Göztepe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 21 as Yeni Malatyaspor welcome Göztepe to Yeni Malatya Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Friday 14 January 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Yeni Malatyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu, Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Yeni Malatyaspor are significantly better at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Göztepe — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Göztepe have gone 1W 4D 4L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.78 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Göztepe's 1.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Yeni Malatyaspor's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Yeni Malatyaspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Göztepe in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Yeni Malatyaspor, 0 for Göztepe and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Yeni Malatyaspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Yeni Malatyaspor trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
Göztepe trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 30% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Yeni Malatyaspor 30% versus Göztepe 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yeni Malatyaspor 35% | Göztepe 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yeni Malatyaspor 1.43 xG and Göztepe 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.897 / defence 1.815 | Göztepe attack 0.917 / defence 1.365. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.102. Göztepe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.365 — this is suppressing Yeni Malatyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Yeni Malatyaspor games / 20 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 30% | Draw 23% | Göztepe 47%. Fair-value odds: Yeni Malatyaspor 3.33 | Draw 4.35 | Göztepe 2.13. Göztepe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Göztepe are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Göztepe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Yeni Malatyaspor 60% | Göztepe 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yeni Malatyaspor vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Yeni Malatya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 14 Jan 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 30% | Draw 23% | Göztepe 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Yeni Malatyaspor 1.43 / Göztepe 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.897 / def 1.815 | Göztepe attack 0.917 / def 1.365 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Göztepe xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yeni Malatyaspor vs Göztepe kick off?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Göztepe kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 14 January 2022 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Göztepe?
Yeni Malatyaspor 1 - 2 Göztepe.
Where is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What competition is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Göztepe part of?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Yeni Malatyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Yeni Malatyaspor a 30% chance of winning, Göztepe a 47% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Yeni Malatyaspor and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Yeni Malatyaspor vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Göztepe?
Record (1 meetings): Yeni Malatyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Göztepe 0W.
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Göztepe in?
Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Göztepe (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Yeni Malatyaspor's attack rating (0.90) and Göztepe's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Yeni Malatyaspor's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
30%
3.33
23%
4.35
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Total xG
3.26
1.83
Göztepe xG
3.33
30%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
16%
6.26
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
5%
20.86
11%
8.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Yeni Malatyaspor and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Yeni Malatyaspor and 1.83 for Göztepe, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Yeni Malatyaspor's recent record stands at 4W 3D 13L from 20 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Yeni Malatyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Göztepe, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 10L across 20 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Yeni Malatyaspor on 0.75 PPG, Göztepe on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Yeni Malatyaspor have managed 2W 2D 5L from 9 games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Göztepe's away record stands at 1W 4D 4L across 9 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Yeni Malatyaspor are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.10 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yeni Malatyaspor have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games; Göztepe in 65%.
Last 20 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yeni Malatyaspor
Blended
Göztepe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 4W 3D 13L in their last 20 games (0.75 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 4W 6D 10L in their last 20 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yeni Malatyaspor at home or Göztepe away?
Yeni Malatyaspor's home record (0.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yeni Malatyaspor at home: 0.89 PPG; Göztepe away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Yeni Malatyaspor
0
Draws
1
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Göztepe?
From 2 meetings on record, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 1, Göztepe have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Yeni Malatyaspor and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2022, when Yeni Malatyaspor 1-2 Göztepe.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Yeni Malatyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Yeni Malatyaspor at 56%, Göztepe at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Yeni Malatyaspor and 78% for Göztepe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Yeni Malatyaspor have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yeni Malatyaspor home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yeni Malatyaspor play Göztepe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Yeni Malatyaspor's games and 100% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Yeni Malatyaspor's matches and 78% of Göztepe's.
Do Yeni Malatyaspor and Göztepe tend to score early?
Yeni Malatyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Göztepe edge out Yeni Malatyaspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Göztepe beat Yeni Malatyaspor 1-2 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yeni Malatyaspor 1.43 xG and Göztepe 1.83 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.81 against Göztepe attack 0.92 / defence 1.36, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yeni Malatyaspor 30% | Draw 23% | Göztepe 47%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yeni Malatyaspor 35%, Göztepe 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yeni Malatyaspor's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did.
Göztepe's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yeni Malatyaspor 0.75 PPG, Göztepe 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Göztepe win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.