Yeni Malatyaspor 3-4 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yeni Malatyaspor at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yeni Malatyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yeni Malatya Stadyumu plays host to Yeni Malatyaspor versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Friday 17 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Yeni Malatyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Yeni Malatyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fatih Karagümrük have collected 1.75 PPG across 4 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 1D 1L. Last five: W D L W. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 0.75. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Fatih Karagümrük have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Yeni Malatyaspor, 1.75 for Fatih Karagümrük — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Yeni Malatyaspor have seen both teams score in just 25% of their games, Fatih Karagümrük in only 25%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading
Yeni Malatyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Fatih Karagümrük half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Yeni Malatyaspor 25% | Fatih Karagümrük 25%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yeni Malatyaspor 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yeni Malatyaspor 1.11 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 1.008 / defence 1.425 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.642 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.125 / away 1.015. Data: 4 Yeni Malatyaspor games / 4 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 39% | Draw 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 30%. Fair-value odds: Yeni Malatyaspor 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Fatih Karagümrük 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Yeni Malatyaspor are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Yeni Malatyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Yeni Malatyaspor 25% | Fatih Karagümrük 25% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yeni Malatyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Yeni Malatya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 17 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 39% | Draw 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Yeni Malatyaspor 1.11 / Fatih Karagümrük 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 1.008 / def 1.425 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.642 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.125 / away 1.015 • Poisson stance: Yeni Malatyaspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Fatih Karagümrük xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yeni Malatyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 17 September 2021 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Yeni Malatyaspor 3 - 4 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What competition is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Yeni Malatyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Yeni Malatyaspor a 39% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Yeni Malatyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Yeni Malatyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Yeni Malatyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 2W-0D-2L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 0.75 | L5 W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Yeni Malatyaspor's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Fatih Karagümrük's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (0.64x) against Yeni Malatyaspor's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Yeni Malatyaspor Win
39%
2.54
30%
3.29
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Total xG
2.04
0.93
Fatih Karagümrük xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
10%
10.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 12.1 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Yeni Malatyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Yeni Malatyaspor and 0.93 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Yeni Malatyaspor's recent record stands at 2W 0D 2L from 4 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Yeni Malatyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 1L across 4 games — 1.75 PPG, with W-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Yeni Malatyaspor against 1.75 for Fatih Karagümrük. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Yeni Malatyaspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.75 scored and 0.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yeni Malatyaspor have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Fatih Karagümrük in 25%.
Defensively: Yeni Malatyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Fatih Karagümrük in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yeni Malatyaspor
Early Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
Have Yeni Malatyaspor or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Yeni Malatyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Yeni Malatyaspor
0
Draws
2
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 2 meetings on record, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 0, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Yeni Malatyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2022, when Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Yeni Malatyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Yeni Malatyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Yeni Malatyaspor) and 25% (Fatih Karagümrük) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Yeni Malatyaspor) and 50% (Fatih Karagümrük).
On the defensive side: Yeni Malatyaspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük in 50%; Fatih Karagümrük in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yeni Malatyaspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yeni Malatyaspor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Yeni Malatyaspor's recent matches and 25% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Yeni Malatyaspor's recent games and 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Yeni Malatyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Yeni Malatyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fatih Karagümrük defy the odds to beat Yeni Malatyaspor 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Yeni Malatyaspor 3-4 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yeni Malatyaspor 1.11 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.93 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Yeni Malatyaspor beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fatih Karagümrük outscored their 0.93 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yeni Malatyaspor attack 1.01 / defence 1.43 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.64 / defence 0.97, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yeni Malatyaspor 39% | Draw 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 30%, with Yeni Malatyaspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Fatih Karagümrük win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yeni Malatyaspor 50%, Fatih Karagümrük 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yeni Malatyaspor's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yeni Malatyaspor 1.50 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fatih Karagümrük win broke the near-deadlock. Yeni Malatyaspor scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fatih Karagümrük scored 4 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.