Yeni Malatyaspor 1-0 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Adana Demirspor at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Yeni Malatyaspor vs Adana Demirspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Adana Demirspor make the trip to Yeni Malatya Stadyumu to face Yeni Malatyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Friday 4 March 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Yeni Malatyaspor (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Yeni Malatyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu, Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Adana Demirspor have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Adana Demirspor's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Adana Demirspor are the stronger side — 1.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Yeni Malatyaspor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Adana Demirspor in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Yeni Malatyaspor lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 2–0 with Yeni Malatyaspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Yeni Malatyaspor — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Adana Demirspor — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Yeni Malatyaspor 41% versus Adana Demirspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yeni Malatyaspor 41% | Adana Demirspor 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yeni Malatyaspor 1.00 xG and Adana Demirspor 2.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.826 / defence 1.638 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.160 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.204. Data: 27 Yeni Malatyaspor games / 27 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 15% | Draw 20% | Adana Demirspor 66%. Fair-value odds: Yeni Malatyaspor 6.67 | Draw 5.00 | Adana Demirspor 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Adana Demirspor (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Adana Demirspor at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Yeni Malatyaspor 70% | Adana Demirspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yeni Malatyaspor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Yeni Malatya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 4 Mar 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 15% | Draw 20% | Adana Demirspor 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 57% | xG Yeni Malatyaspor 1.00 / Adana Demirspor 2.29 • Poisson strength factors: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.826 / def 1.638 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.160 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Expected Goals
2.29
Adana Demirspor xG
57%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yeni Malatyaspor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 4 March 2022 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Yeni Malatyaspor 1 - 0 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What competition is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Yeni Malatyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Yeni Malatyaspor a 15% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 66% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Yeni Malatyaspor and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Yeni Malatyaspor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
Record (1 meetings): Yeni Malatyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Adana Demirspor 0W.
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Adana Demirspor in?
Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Yeni Malatyaspor's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Adana Demirspor's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (1.16x) against Yeni Malatyaspor's defence (1.64x) — and the away total comes out at 2.29.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.8%. Close behind: 0-2 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
15%
6.82
20%
5.09
66%
1.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Total xG
3.29
2.29
Adana Demirspor xG
6.82
15%
Home win
5.09
20%
Draw
1.52
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
10%
9.87
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
1%
67.29
24%
4.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Yeni Malatyaspor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Yeni Malatyaspor and 2.29 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Yeni Malatyaspor's recent record stands at 4W 5D 18L from 27 games, a 0.63 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Yeni Malatyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Adana Demirspor, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 6L across 27 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Adana Demirspor by 1.04 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Yeni Malatyaspor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Yeni Malatyaspor have managed 2W 3D 8L from 13 games — 0.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Adana Demirspor's away record stands at 6W 3D 4L across 13 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Yeni Malatyaspor are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.56 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yeni Malatyaspor
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 4W 5D 18L in their last 27 games (0.63 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 12W 9D 6L in their last 27 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yeni Malatyaspor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Adana Demirspor's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yeni Malatyaspor at home: 0.69 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Yeni Malatyaspor
0
Draws
0
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 2, Adana Demirspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Yeni Malatyaspor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2022, when Yeni Malatyaspor 1-0 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Yeni Malatyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
Yeni Malatyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Yeni Malatyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for Yeni Malatyaspor, 69% for Adana Demirspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Yeni Malatyaspor and 69% for Adana Demirspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yeni Malatyaspor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yeni Malatyaspor play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Yeni Malatyaspor's games and 69% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Yeni Malatyaspor's matches and 69% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Yeni Malatyaspor and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Yeni Malatyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Yeni Malatyaspor defy the odds to beat Adana Demirspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yeni Malatyaspor beat Adana Demirspor 1-0 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yeni Malatyaspor 1.00 xG and Adana Demirspor 2.29 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Adana Demirspor landed 2.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.64 against Adana Demirspor attack 1.16 / defence 1.02, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yeni Malatyaspor 15% | Draw 20% | Adana Demirspor 66%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Yeni Malatyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yeni Malatyaspor 41%, Adana Demirspor 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yeni Malatyaspor's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Adana Demirspor arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.63. Form was overturned, with Yeni Malatyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Yeni Malatyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.