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Dominant Trabzonspor run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Sivasspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Trabzonspor beat Sivasspor 4-0 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 2.69 xG and Sivasspor 0.98 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Trabzonspor beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sivasspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.38 / defence 0.91 against Sivasspor attack 0.91 / defence 1.21, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 72% | Draw 18% | Sivasspor 10%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 59%, Sivasspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Trabzonspor's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sivasspor's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.59 PPG, Sivasspor 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights