🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Rizespor 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Trabzonspor beat Rizespor 1-0 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.89 xG and Rizespor 1.62 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Trabzonspor fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Rizespor landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.31 / defence 1.07 against Rizespor attack 1.22 / defence 1.09, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 42% | Draw 28% | Rizespor 31%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 56%, Rizespor 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Trabzonspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Rizespor's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights