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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 22 as Trabzonspor welcome Konyaspor to Papara Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 February 2027 at 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Trabzonspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Trabzonspor's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Papara Park this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Konyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Trabzonspor) versus 1.70 (Konyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Trabzonspor have won 5, Konyaspor 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Konyaspor winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trabzonspor 68% and Konyaspor 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 56% | Konyaspor 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.63 xG and Konyaspor 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 0.968 / defence 1.063 | Konyaspor attack 1.052 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Trabzonspor games / 34 Konyaspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 44% | Draw 28% | Konyaspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Konyaspor 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 80% | Konyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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