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Trabzonspor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Konyaspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Trabzonspor beat Konyaspor 3-1 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.68 xG and Konyaspor 0.94 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Trabzonspor beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.18 / defence 0.74 against Konyaspor attack 0.95 / defence 1.13, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 53% | Draw 28% | Konyaspor 19%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 47%, Konyaspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Trabzonspor's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Konyaspor's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.61 PPG, Konyaspor 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm. Konyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights