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Poisson model favours Trabzonspor (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Trabzonspor face Konyaspor.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 14 as Trabzonspor welcome Konyaspor to Papara Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 November 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Trabzonspor's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Papara Park this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Trabzonspor have won 4, Konyaspor 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Konyaspor winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 53% versus Konyaspor 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 47% | Konyaspor 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.68 xG and Konyaspor 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.176 / defence 0.736 | Konyaspor attack 0.946 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.346. Trabzonspor's defence rating of 0.736 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Trabzonspor games / 49 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 53% | Draw 28% | Konyaspor 19%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Konyaspor 5.26. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 50% | Konyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.

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