Trabzonspor 0-0 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kasımpaşa make the trip to Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi to face Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Monday 10 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Trabzonspor have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Kasımpaşa's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Trabzonspor, 1.50 for Kasımpaşa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Trabzonspor lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with Trabzonspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trabzonspor 65% and Kasımpaşa 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 54% | Kasımpaşa 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.55 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.073 / defence 0.904 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.088 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.273. Data: 46 Trabzonspor games / 46 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 44% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 31%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Kasımpaşa 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 80% | Kasımpaşa 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Monday 10 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 44% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Trabzonspor 1.55 / Kasımpaşa 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.073 / def 0.904 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.088 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Kasımpaşa xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 10 October 2022 at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Trabzonspor 0 - 0 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 44% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (2 meetings): Trabzonspor 2W | Draws 0 | Kasımpaşa 0W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Kasımpaşa's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (1.09x) against Trabzonspor's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
44%
2.26
25%
4.01
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.81
1.25
Kasımpaşa xG
2.26
44%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
6%
15.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.25 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trabzonspor's recent record stands at 28W 13D 5L from 46 games, a 2.11 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa, meanwhile, have gone 19W 8D 19L across 46 games — 1.41 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kasımpaşa heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Trabzonspor have managed 14W 8D 0L from 22 games — 2.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kasımpaşa's away record stands at 9W 3D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.63 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 28W 13D 5L in their last 46 games (2.11 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 19W 8D 19L in their last 46 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.27 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Trabzonspor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won 1-5 on 1 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trabzonspor have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Trabzonspor
3
Draws
2
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 5, Kasımpaşa have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Trabzonspor 2-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 64%, Kasımpaşa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Trabzonspor) and 54% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Kasımpaşa in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Trabzonspor's games and 50% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 54% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Trabzonspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 9, as Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.55 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.25 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Trabzonspor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Kasımpaşa landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.07 / defence 0.90 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.09 / defence 1.04, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 44% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 31%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 54%, Kasımpaşa 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.41. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.