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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Kasımpaşa 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Trabzonspor beat Kasımpaşa 2-1 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.85 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.03 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.28 / defence 0.95 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.84 / defence 1.08, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 53% | Draw 29% | Kasımpaşa 18%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 52%, Kasımpaşa 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Trabzonspor's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights