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Shock result as Hatayspor defy the odds to beat Trabzonspor 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hatayspor beat Trabzonspor 1-2 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 2.67 xG and Hatayspor 0.94 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Trabzonspor fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Hatayspor outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.33 / defence 0.88 against Hatayspor attack 0.91 / defence 1.22, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 74% | Draw 16% | Hatayspor 11%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 74%. Instead the game produced a Hatayspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 58%, Hatayspor 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Trabzonspor's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Hatayspor's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Hatayspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Hatayspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights