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Trabzonspor and Göztepe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Papara Park, Regular Season - 32, as Trabzonspor and Göztepe drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.49 xG and Göztepe 1.03 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.17 / defence 0.95 against Göztepe attack 0.96 / defence 0.88, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 45% | Draw 32% | Göztepe 23%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 54%, Göztepe 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Trabzonspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Göztepe's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.73 PPG, Göztepe 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights