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Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Trabzonspor 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Trabzonspor 2-3 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.40 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.88 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.24 / defence 0.95 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.50 / defence 0.84, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 26% | Draw 28% | Fenerbahçe 46%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 53%, Fenerbahçe 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Trabzonspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.68. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights