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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe encounter.

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Match Analysis

Trabzonspor host Fenerbahçe at Papara Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Trabzonspor — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Trabzonspor's home record at Papara Park: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fenerbahçe have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 7W 3D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Trabzonspor at 2.10 PPG versus Fenerbahçe's 2.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Trabzonspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Fenerbahçe in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Trabzonspor have won 3, Fenerbahçe 5, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Fenerbahçe winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Trabzonspor trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Fenerbahçe trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 58% versus Fenerbahçe 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 53% | Fenerbahçe 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.40 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.235 / defence 0.949 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.505 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.316. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.505 — the away xG of 1.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Trabzonspor games / 57 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 26% | Draw 28% | Fenerbahçe 46%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Fenerbahçe 2.17. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 60% | Fenerbahçe 60% BTTS from recent games.

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