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Trabzonspor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Fatih Karagümrük.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Trabzonspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 3-1 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 2.46 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.07 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.26 / defence 1.05 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.80 / defence 1.40, drawn from 59/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 66% | Draw 22% | Fatih Karagümrük 12%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 56%, Fatih Karagümrük 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Trabzonspor's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 0.57. That form edge translated into the three points. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights