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Poisson model favours Trabzonspor (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Trabzonspor face Fatih Karagümrük.

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Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Fatih Karagümrük travel to Papara Park to take on Trabzonspor. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 February 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Trabzonspor's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Papara Park this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Fatih Karagümrük — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fatih Karagümrük's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Trabzonspor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

Trabzonspor hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 1 for Fatih Karagümrük, with 2 draws in between.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 4–3 with Trabzonspor winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Trabzonspor and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 65% versus Fatih Karagümrük 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 56% | Fatih Karagümrük 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 2.46 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.264 / defence 1.051 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.802 / defence 1.395. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.264. Trabzonspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — their λ of 2.46 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.395 — this is suppressing Trabzonspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Trabzonspor games / 23 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 66% | Draw 22% | Fatih Karagümrük 12%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.52 | Draw 4.55 | Fatih Karagümrük 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.46 / 1.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.52 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 70% | Fatih Karagümrük 70% BTTS from recent games.

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