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Poisson model favours Trabzonspor (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Trabzonspor face Eyüpspor.

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Full Analysis

Papara Park plays host to Trabzonspor versus Eyüpspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 22 November 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Current Form

Trabzonspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Trabzonspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Trabzonspor have posted 5W 3D 2L at Papara Park — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Eyüpspor (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Eyüpspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Trabzonspor's favour (1.80 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Eyüpspor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record favours Trabzonspor, who have won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Eyüpspor — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Trabzonspor winning.

The historical record gives Trabzonspor a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Eyüpspor — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 68% versus Eyüpspor 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 56% | Eyüpspor 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.61 xG and Eyüpspor 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 0.968 / defence 1.064 | Eyüpspor attack 1.007 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Trabzonspor games / 34 Eyüpspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 44% | Draw 28% | Eyüpspor 27%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Eyüpspor 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 80% | Eyüpspor 60% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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