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Trabzonspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Eyüpspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Trabzonspor beat Eyüpspor 2-0 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.43 xG and Eyüpspor 0.64 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.14 / defence 0.75 against Eyüpspor attack 0.66 / defence 0.94, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 54% | Draw 32% | Eyüpspor 14%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 49%, Eyüpspor 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Trabzonspor's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Eyüpspor's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.58 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights