🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Eyüpspor 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Trabzonspor beat Eyüpspor 1-0 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 2.06 xG and Eyüpspor 1.00 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Trabzonspor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Eyüpspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.39 / defence 0.82 against Eyüpspor attack 0.99 / defence 0.89, drawn from 58/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 61% | Draw 23% | Eyüpspor 16%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 62%, Eyüpspor 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Trabzonspor's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Eyüpspor's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.38. Form was overturned, with Trabzonspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.73 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights