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Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Antalyaspor 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Trabzonspor beat Antalyaspor 1-0 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 3, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.50 xG and Antalyaspor 0.97 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Antalyaspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.06 / defence 0.92 against Antalyaspor attack 0.84 / defence 1.01, drawn from 38/38 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 50% | Draw 26% | Antalyaspor 24%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 50%, Antalyaspor 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Trabzonspor's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Antalyaspor's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.50 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights