Trabzonspor 5-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor meet at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 June 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Trabzonspor (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trabzonspor have posted 7W 1D 2L at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi than their overall form suggests.
Alanyaspor have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Trabzonspor 1W, Alanyaspor 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Jan 2023, ended 0–5 with Alanyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Trabzonspor half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Alanyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 62% versus Alanyaspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 58% | Alanyaspor 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 2.41 xG and Alanyaspor 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.287 / defence 0.744 | Alanyaspor attack 1.135 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.433. Trabzonspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.287 — their λ of 2.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Trabzonspor's defence rating of 0.744 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 71 Trabzonspor games / 73 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 64% | Draw 18% | Alanyaspor 18%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.56 | Draw 5.56 | Alanyaspor 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (64%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.41 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.62 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Trabzonspor 40% | Alanyaspor 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jun 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 64% | Draw 18% | Alanyaspor 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 64% | xG Trabzonspor 2.41 / Alanyaspor 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.287 / def 0.744 | Alanyaspor attack 1.135 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.605 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Alanyaspor xG
64%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 3 June 2023 at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor?
Trabzonspor 5 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 64% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 18% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor?
Record (3 meetings): Trabzonspor 1W | Draws 1 | Alanyaspor 1W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.29x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 2.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alanyaspor's attack (1.14x) against Trabzonspor's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 71/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
64%
1.57
18%
5.43
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.62
1.21
Alanyaspor xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.43
18%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
9%
11.13
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
2%
62.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.21 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trabzonspor come into this having played 71 games, going 38W 18D 15L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.44 PPG from 71 outings (29W 15D 27L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Trabzonspor's home form reads 22W 11D 2L across 35 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 1.23 points per game from 35 outings (12W 7D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.66 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Current Season
Alanyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 38W 18D 15L in their last 71 games (1.86 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 29W 15D 27L in their last 71 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.20 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Alanyaspor won 5-0 on 9 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trabzonspor have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Trabzonspor
3
Draws
3
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 4, Alanyaspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Alanyaspor 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 51%, Alanyaspor 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Trabzonspor) and 66% (Alanyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches; Alanyaspor in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 57% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 49% of Trabzonspor's matches and 66% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Trabzonspor run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Alanyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Alanyaspor 5-1 at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 37, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 2.41 xG and Alanyaspor 1.21 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Trabzonspor beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.29 / defence 0.74 against Alanyaspor attack 1.14 / defence 1.17, drawn from 71/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 64% | Draw 18% | Alanyaspor 18%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 58%, Alanyaspor 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.44. That form edge translated into the three points. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.