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Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Alanyaspor 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Trabzonspor beat Alanyaspor 4-3 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.82 xG and Alanyaspor 0.81 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Trabzonspor beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Alanyaspor outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.14 / defence 0.90 against Alanyaspor attack 0.77 / defence 1.00, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 61% | Draw 22% | Alanyaspor 16%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 57%, Alanyaspor 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Trabzonspor's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Alanyaspor's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.60 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights