İstanbulspor 3-0 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this İstanbulspor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sivasspor make the trip to Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu to face İstanbulspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Monday 13 March 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
İstanbulspor (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for İstanbulspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
İstanbulspor at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu this season.
Sivasspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — İstanbulspor have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Sivasspor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — İstanbulspor lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
İstanbulspor — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sivasspor — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — İstanbulspor 54% versus Sivasspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (İstanbulspor 59% | Sivasspor 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects İstanbulspor 1.45 xG and Sivasspor 2.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: İstanbulspor attack 0.823 / defence 1.461 | Sivasspor attack 1.224 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.304. Sivasspor have an above-average attack strength of 1.224 — the away xG of 2.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 22 İstanbulspor games / 61 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: İstanbulspor 23% | Draw 20% | Sivasspor 57%. Fair-value odds: İstanbulspor 4.35 | Draw 5.00 | Sivasspor 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Sivasspor (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 2.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sivasspor as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.78 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: İstanbulspor 70% | Sivasspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: İstanbulspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 13 Mar 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: İstanbulspor 23% | Draw 20% | Sivasspor 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 69% | xG İstanbulspor 1.45 / Sivasspor 2.33 • Poisson strength factors: İstanbulspor attack 0.823 / def 1.461 | Sivasspor attack 1.224 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
İstanbulspor xG
Expected Goals
2.33
Sivasspor xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does İstanbulspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
İstanbulspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 13 March 2023 at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What was the final score in İstanbulspor vs Sivasspor?
İstanbulspor 3 - 0 Sivasspor.
Where is İstanbulspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What competition is İstanbulspor vs Sivasspor part of?
İstanbulspor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win İstanbulspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives İstanbulspor a 23% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 57% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in İstanbulspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both İstanbulspor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will İstanbulspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between İstanbulspor and Sivasspor?
Record (1 meetings): İstanbulspor 0W | Draws 1 | Sivasspor 0W.
What form are İstanbulspor and Sivasspor in?
İstanbulspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
İstanbulspor's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Sivasspor's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Sivasspor's attack (1.22x) against İstanbulspor's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 2.33.
These ratings are built from 22/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 1-3 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
23%
4.32
20%
5.12
57%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
1 – 3
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
İstanbulspor xG
Total xG
3.78
2.33
Sivasspor xG
4.32
23%
Home win
5.12
20%
Draw
1.74
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.23
Clean Sheet
10%
10.30
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
2%
44.52
14%
7.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for İstanbulspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are İstanbulspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for İstanbulspor and 2.33 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 3.78.
How confident is the prediction model for İstanbulspor vs Sivasspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 22 outings, İstanbulspor have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 6W 3D 13L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for İstanbulspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sivasspor's form line: 6W 5D 11L from 22 games, 1.05 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for İstanbulspor against 1.05 for Sivasspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, İstanbulspor have posted 0.80 PPG from 10 outings (2W 2D 6L).
On the road, Sivasspor have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sivasspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
İstanbulspor are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.27 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
İstanbulspor
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are İstanbulspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
İstanbulspor have gone 6W 3D 13L in their last 22 games (0.95 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 6W 5D 11L in their last 22 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — İstanbulspor at home or Sivasspor away?
Sivasspor's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — İstanbulspor at home: 0.80 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sivasspor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: İstanbulspor won 3-0 on 13 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, İstanbulspor have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
İstanbulspor
1
Draws
2
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between İstanbulspor and Sivasspor?
From 4 meetings on record, İstanbulspor have won 1, Sivasspor have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did İstanbulspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2024, when İstanbulspor 1-3 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between İstanbulspor and Sivasspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for İstanbulspor, 60% for Sivasspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for İstanbulspor and 70% for Sivasspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: İstanbulspor have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = İstanbulspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when İstanbulspor play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of İstanbulspor's games and 60% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is İstanbulspor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of İstanbulspor's matches and 70% of Sivasspor's.
Do İstanbulspor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
İstanbulspor have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant İstanbulspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sivasspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
İstanbulspor beat Sivasspor 3-0 at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting İstanbulspor 1.45 xG and Sivasspor 2.33 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. İstanbulspor beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sivasspor landed 2.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of İstanbulspor attack 0.82 / defence 1.46 against Sivasspor attack 1.22 / defence 1.07, drawn from 22/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it İstanbulspor 23% | Draw 20% | Sivasspor 57%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a İstanbulspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (İstanbulspor 59%, Sivasspor 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
İstanbulspor's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Sivasspor's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — İstanbulspor 0.95 PPG, Sivasspor 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the İstanbulspor win broke the near-deadlock. İstanbulspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.