İstanbulspor 0-4 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this İstanbulspor vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
İstanbulspor host Konyaspor at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 22 August 2022 at 17:15 UTC.
Form Guide
İstanbulspor — All Games: 0W 0D 2L from 2 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. İstanbulspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Konyaspor — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects İstanbulspor 0.93 xG and Konyaspor 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: İstanbulspor attack 0.665 / defence 1.183 | Konyaspor attack 0.930 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.312. İstanbulspor's attack strength of 0.665 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 İstanbulspor games / 40 Konyaspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: İstanbulspor 24% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 49%. Fair-value odds: İstanbulspor 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Konyaspor 2.04. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: İstanbulspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 22 Aug 2022, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: İstanbulspor 24% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG İstanbulspor 0.93 / Konyaspor 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: İstanbulspor attack 0.665 / def 1.183 | Konyaspor attack 0.930 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
İstanbulspor xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Konyaspor xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does İstanbulspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
İstanbulspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 17:15 on Monday 22 August 2022 at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What was the final score in İstanbulspor vs Konyaspor?
İstanbulspor 0 - 4 Konyaspor.
Where is İstanbulspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What competition is İstanbulspor vs Konyaspor part of?
İstanbulspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win İstanbulspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives İstanbulspor a 24% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in İstanbulspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both İstanbulspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will İstanbulspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between İstanbulspor and Konyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are İstanbulspor and Konyaspor in?
İstanbulspor (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
İstanbulspor's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus İstanbulspor's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
24%
4.10
27%
3.75
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
İstanbulspor xG
Total xG
2.38
1.44
Konyaspor xG
4.10
24%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
6%
17.35
19%
5.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 13.4 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for İstanbulspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are İstanbulspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for İstanbulspor and 1.44 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for İstanbulspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 2 outings, İstanbulspor have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 2L record — L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for İstanbulspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Konyaspor's form line: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Konyaspor are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against İstanbulspor.
The Goals Picture
İstanbulspor are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: İstanbulspor have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Konyaspor in 0%.
Defensively: Konyaspor in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
İstanbulspor
Early Season
Konyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are İstanbulspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
İstanbulspor have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 (1.00 PPG).
Have İstanbulspor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
İstanbulspor have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between İstanbulspor and Konyaspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2022, when Konyaspor won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
İstanbulspor's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
İstanbulspor
2
Draws
1
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between İstanbulspor and Konyaspor?
From 4 meetings on record, İstanbulspor have won 1, Konyaspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did İstanbulspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2024, when İstanbulspor 0-0 Konyaspor.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = İstanbulspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when İstanbulspor play Konyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of İstanbulspor's recent matches and 0% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is İstanbulspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of İstanbulspor's recent games and 0% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do İstanbulspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
İstanbulspor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Konyaspor run riot with a 0-4 hammering of İstanbulspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat İstanbulspor 0-4 at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, Regular Season - 3, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting İstanbulspor 0.93 xG and Konyaspor 1.44 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. İstanbulspor fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Konyaspor outscored their 1.44 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of İstanbulspor attack 0.67 / defence 1.18 against Konyaspor attack 0.93 / defence 0.96, drawn from 2/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it İstanbulspor 24% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 49%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (İstanbulspor 0%, Konyaspor 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. İstanbulspor shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Konyaspor scored 4 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.