İstanbulspor 0-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
İstanbulspor host Fatih Karagümrük at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 3 April 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, İstanbulspor have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for İstanbulspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
İstanbulspor's home record at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu this season.
Fatih Karagümrük — All Games: 4W 6D 0L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — İstanbulspor at 1.60 PPG versus Fatih Karagümrük's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, İstanbulspor have won 1, Fatih Karagümrük 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with İstanbulspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
İstanbulspor in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Fatih Karagümrük in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — İstanbulspor 54% and Fatih Karagümrük 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (İstanbulspor 62% | Fatih Karagümrük 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects İstanbulspor 1.66 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: İstanbulspor attack 0.937 / defence 1.191 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.260 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.334. Fatih Karagümrük have an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — the away xG of 2.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 24 İstanbulspor games / 62 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: İstanbulspor 32% | Draw 21% | Fatih Karagümrük 46%. Fair-value odds: İstanbulspor 3.12 | Draw 4.76 | Fatih Karagümrük 2.17. Fatih Karagümrük hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 46% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.66 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: İstanbulspor 70% | Fatih Karagümrük 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 3 Apr 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: İstanbulspor 32% | Draw 21% | Fatih Karagümrük 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG İstanbulspor 1.66 / Fatih Karagümrük 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: İstanbulspor attack 0.937 / def 1.191 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.260 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
İstanbulspor xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Fatih Karagümrük xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 18:30 on Monday 3 April 2023 at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What was the final score in İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
İstanbulspor 0 - 1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What competition is İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives İstanbulspor a 32% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 46% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both İstanbulspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between İstanbulspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (1 meetings): İstanbulspor 1W | Draws 0 | Fatih Karagümrük 0W.
What form are İstanbulspor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
İstanbulspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates İstanbulspor's attack at 0.94x the league average against Fatih Karagümrük's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fatih Karagümrük's attack versus İstanbulspor's defence, projects 2.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
32%
3.08
21%
4.67
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
İstanbulspor xG
Total xG
3.66
2.00
Fatih Karagümrük xG
3.08
32%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.34
Clean Sheet
14%
7.40
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
4%
22.82
9%
11.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are İstanbulspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for İstanbulspor and 2.00 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
İstanbulspor come into this having played 24 games, going 7W 3D 14L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for İstanbulspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fatih Karagümrük sit at 1.29 PPG from 24 outings (7W 10D 7L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: İstanbulspor on 1.00 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
İstanbulspor's home form reads 3W 2D 6L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Fatih Karagümrük have taken 1.27 points per game from 11 outings (3W 5D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
İstanbulspor are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 2.12 scored and 1.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fatih Karagümrük in 79%.
Last 24 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
İstanbulspor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are İstanbulspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
İstanbulspor have gone 7W 3D 14L in their last 24 games (1.00 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 7W 10D 7L in their last 24 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — İstanbulspor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Fatih Karagümrük's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — İstanbulspor at home: 1.00 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Fatih Karagümrük go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2023, when Fatih Karagümrük won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
İstanbulspor's record when hosting Fatih Karagümrük specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
İstanbulspor
0
Draws
3
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between İstanbulspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 4 meetings on record, İstanbulspor have won 1, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did İstanbulspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when İstanbulspor 1-2 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between İstanbulspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — İstanbulspor at 64%, Fatih Karagümrük at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for İstanbulspor and 73% for Fatih Karagümrük. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 64% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: İstanbulspor have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = İstanbulspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when İstanbulspor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of İstanbulspor's games and 73% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of İstanbulspor's matches and 73% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do İstanbulspor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
İstanbulspor have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fatih Karagümrük edge out İstanbulspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat İstanbulspor 0-1 at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting İstanbulspor 1.66 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 2.00 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. İstanbulspor fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Fatih Karagümrük landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of İstanbulspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.19 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.26 / defence 1.07, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it İstanbulspor 32% | Draw 21% | Fatih Karagümrük 46%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (İstanbulspor 62%, Fatih Karagümrük 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
İstanbulspor's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — İstanbulspor 1.00 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fatih Karagümrük win broke the near-deadlock. İstanbulspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.