Sivasspor 1-0 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Konyaspor at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sivasspor vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 36 as Sivasspor welcome Konyaspor to Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 30 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sivasspor stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sivasspor's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Konyaspor — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Konyaspor away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Konyaspor are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sivasspor, 1 for Konyaspor and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sivasspor trading profile (71 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Konyaspor trading profile (71 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 63% versus Konyaspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 58% | Konyaspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.40 xG and Konyaspor 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 1.003 / defence 1.044 | Konyaspor attack 1.194 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.419. Data: 72 Sivasspor games / 71 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 30% | Draw 23% | Konyaspor 46%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 3.33 | Draw 4.35 | Konyaspor 2.17. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 70% | Konyaspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 30% | Draw 23% | Konyaspor 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Sivasspor 1.40 / Konyaspor 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 1.003 / def 1.044 | Konyaspor attack 1.194 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Konyaspor xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 30 May 2023 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Konyaspor?
Sivasspor 1 - 0 Konyaspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 30% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 46% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Sivasspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Konyaspor?
Record (3 meetings): Sivasspor 1W | Draws 1 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Sivasspor and Konyaspor in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sivasspor's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
30%
3.28
23%
4.32
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
3.17
1.77
Konyaspor xG
3.28
30%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
17%
5.87
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
5%
19.27
11%
8.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.77 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sivasspor's recent record stands at 24W 19D 28L from 71 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Konyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 32W 21D 18L across 71 games — 1.65 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.28 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sivasspor have managed 11W 14D 9L from 34 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Konyaspor's away record stands at 13W 10D 11L across 34 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sivasspor are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.56 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 71 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Current Season
Konyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 24W 19D 28L in their last 71 games (1.28 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 32W 21D 18L in their last 71 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Konyaspor's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.38 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Sivasspor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sivasspor have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sivasspor and Konyaspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Sivasspor's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Sivasspor
3
Draws
1
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Konyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 4, Konyaspor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Sivasspor 1-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Konyaspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sivasspor at 68%, Konyaspor at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sivasspor) and 68% (Konyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Sivasspor's games and 65% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sivasspor's matches and 68% of Konyaspor's.
Do Sivasspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sivasspor defy the odds to beat Konyaspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Konyaspor 1-0 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 36, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.40 xG and Konyaspor 1.77 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Konyaspor landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 1.00 / defence 1.04 against Konyaspor attack 1.19 / defence 0.85, drawn from 72/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 30% | Draw 23% | Konyaspor 46%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Sivasspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 58%, Konyaspor 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (71 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Konyaspor's trading profile (71 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.28 PPG, Konyaspor 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sivasspor win broke the near-deadlock. Sivasspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.