Sivasspor 1-2 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sivasspor and Kasımpaşa meet at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 16 May 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sivasspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sivasspor's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kasımpaşa (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Sivasspor 2W, Kasımpaşa 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Dec 2022, ended 2–1 with Sivasspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sivasspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sivasspor 64% and Kasımpaşa 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 58% | Kasımpaşa 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.57 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 1.012 / defence 0.988 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.685 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.370. Data: 70 Sivasspor games / 69 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 52% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 22%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Kasımpaşa 4.55. Sivasspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sivasspor as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sivasspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sivasspor 60% | Kasımpaşa 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 May 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 52% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Sivasspor 1.57 / Kasımpaşa 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 1.012 / def 0.988 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.685 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Kasımpaşa xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Sivasspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 15:00 on Tuesday 16 May 2023 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Sivasspor 1 - 2 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Sivasspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Sivasspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 52% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sivasspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (3 meetings): Sivasspor 2W | Draws 0 | Kasımpaşa 1W.
What form are Sivasspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sivasspor's attack at 1.01x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (0.69x) against Sivasspor's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 70/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
52%
1.91
25%
3.94
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.49
0.93
Kasımpaşa xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
5%
21.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Sivasspor and 0.93 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sivasspor come into this having played 69 games, going 24W 19D 26L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Kasımpaşa sit at 1.26 PPG from 69 outings (24W 15D 30L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Sivasspor against 1.26 for Kasımpaşa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sivasspor's home form reads 11W 14D 8L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Kasımpaşa have taken 1.12 points per game from 33 outings (10W 7D 16L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sivasspor are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.51 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 69 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Current Season
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 24W 19D 26L in their last 69 games (1.32 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 24W 15D 30L in their last 69 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.42 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sivasspor have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sivasspor
2
Draws
4
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 2, Kasımpaşa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Kasımpaşa 3-1 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 67%, Kasımpaşa 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Sivasspor) and 52% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sivasspor's games and 46% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Sivasspor's recent games and 52% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kasımpaşa defy the odds to beat Sivasspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Sivasspor 1-2 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.57 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.93 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Kasımpaşa outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 1.01 / defence 0.99 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.69 / defence 0.91, drawn from 70/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 52% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 22%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Kasımpaşa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 58%, Kasımpaşa 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.32 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Sivasspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.