🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Sivasspor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Göztepe.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sivasspor beat Göztepe 3-1 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.66 xG and Göztepe 1.13 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sivasspor beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.93 / defence 1.08 against Göztepe attack 0.89 / defence 1.10, drawn from 63/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 49% | Draw 25% | Göztepe 26%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 54%, Göztepe 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sivasspor's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Göztepe's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Sivasspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sivasspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Göztepe (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights