Sivasspor 0-0 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sivasspor host Fatih Karagümrük at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 September 2022 at 17:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Sivasspor — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Sivasspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sivasspor have posted 4W 3D 3L at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fatih Karagümrük stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Fatih Karagümrük have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fatih Karagümrük's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sivasspor 1.50 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Sivasspor have won 1, Fatih Karagümrük 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Fatih Karagümrük in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 68% versus Fatih Karagümrük 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 54% | Fatih Karagümrük 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.66 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.912 / defence 0.934 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.927 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.252. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Sivasspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Sivasspor games / 41 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 51% | Draw 24% | Fatih Karagümrük 25%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Fatih Karagümrük 4.00. Sivasspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sivasspor at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 80% | Fatih Karagümrük 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 51% | Draw 24% | Fatih Karagümrük 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Sivasspor 1.66 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.912 / def 0.934 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.927 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Fatih Karagümrük xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Sivasspor 0 - 0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 51% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sivasspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (2 meetings): Sivasspor 1W | Draws 0 | Fatih Karagümrük 1W.
What form are Sivasspor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sivasspor's attack rating (0.91) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fatih Karagümrük's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.11
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.75
1.08
Fatih Karagümrük xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
5%
21.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.6 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.08 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sivasspor come into this having played 41 games, going 14W 14D 13L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Sivasspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fatih Karagümrük sit at 1.46 PPG from 41 outings (17W 9D 15L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.37 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sivasspor's home form reads 7W 10D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Fatih Karagümrük have taken 1.10 points per game from 20 outings (6W 4D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sivasspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sivasspor are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.32 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Early Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 14W 14D 13L in their last 41 games (1.37 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 17W 9D 15L in their last 41 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.55 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Sivasspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sivasspor's record when hosting Fatih Karagümrük specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sivasspor
1
Draws
3
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 6 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2024, when Sivasspor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 70%, Fatih Karagümrük 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Sivasspor) and 60% (Fatih Karagümrük).
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Sivasspor's games and 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Sivasspor's recent games and 60% of Fatih Karagümrük's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sivasspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 5, as Sivasspor and Fatih Karagümrük drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.66 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.08 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sivasspor fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Fatih Karagümrük landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.91 / defence 0.93 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.93 / defence 1.22, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 51% | Draw 24% | Fatih Karagümrük 25%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 54%, Fatih Karagümrük 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.37 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.