Sivasspor 2-3 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sivasspor host Beşiktaş at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sivasspor — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's form when playing at home: 4W 6D 0L across 10 games at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Sivasspor are significantly better at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beşiktaş stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Beşiktaş are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sivasspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Beşiktaş in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sivasspor have won 0, Beşiktaş 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Beşiktaş winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sivasspor in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 62% versus Beşiktaş 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 46% | Beşiktaş 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.34 xG and Beşiktaş 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 1.037 / defence 1.007 | Beşiktaş attack 0.813 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.116 / away 1.159. Data: 26 Sivasspor games / 26 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 45% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 26%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Beşiktaş 3.85. Sivasspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sivasspor at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Beşiktaş (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Sivasspor 60% | Beşiktaş 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 45% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Sivasspor 1.34 / Beşiktaş 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 1.037 / def 1.007 | Beşiktaş attack 0.813 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.116 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Beşiktaş xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş?
Sivasspor 2 - 3 Beşiktaş.
Where is Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 45% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sivasspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (1 meetings): Sivasspor 0W | Draws 0 | Beşiktaş 1W.
What form are Sivasspor and Beşiktaş in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sivasspor's attack at 1.04x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
45%
2.22
29%
3.43
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.29
0.95
Beşiktaş xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
7%
14.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.9 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Sivasspor and 0.95 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sivasspor come into this having played 26 games, going 8W 10D 8L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.58 PPG from 26 outings (11W 8D 7L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.31 PPG, Beşiktaş on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sivasspor's home form reads 4W 8D 1L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 0.92 points per game from 13 outings (2W 6D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beşiktaş's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sivasspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sivasspor are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.42 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 8W 10D 8L in their last 26 games (1.31 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 11W 8D 7L in their last 26 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.54 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Sivasspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sivasspor have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Beşiktaş go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Sivasspor's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sivasspor
0
Draws
6
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Beşiktaş?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Sivasspor 0-2 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 62%, Beşiktaş 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Sivasspor) and 38% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Sivasspor keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Beşiktaş in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Sivasspor's games and 62% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Sivasspor's recent games and 38% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Beşiktaş defy the odds to beat Sivasspor 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Sivasspor 2-3 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.34 xG and Beşiktaş 0.95 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Beşiktaş outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 1.04 / defence 1.01 against Beşiktaş attack 0.81 / defence 1.16, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 45% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 26%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Beşiktaş win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 46%, Beşiktaş 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.31 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Sivasspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.