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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Beşiktaş cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sivasspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beşiktaş beat Sivasspor 0-2 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.38 xG and Beşiktaş 1.12 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sivasspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Beşiktaş outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against Beşiktaş attack 0.87 / defence 0.77, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 41% | Draw 30% | Beşiktaş 29%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Beşiktaş win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 52%, Beşiktaş 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sivasspor's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Beşiktaş's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.31 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights