Sivasspor 1-1 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sivasspor and Başakşehir meet at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sivasspor have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Başakşehir's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sivasspor, 2 for Başakşehir and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with Sivasspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sivasspor half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Başakşehir half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 62% versus Başakşehir 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 57% | Başakşehir 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.21 xG and Başakşehir 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.902 / defence 0.893 | Başakşehir attack 0.935 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.661 / away 1.304. Data: 64 Sivasspor games / 63 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 39% | Draw 28% | Başakşehir 33%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Başakşehir 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sivasspor at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sivasspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Sivasspor 50% | Başakşehir 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 39% | Draw 28% | Başakşehir 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Sivasspor 1.21 / Başakşehir 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.902 / def 0.893 | Başakşehir attack 0.935 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.661 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Başakşehir xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Sivasspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Başakşehir?
Sivasspor 1 - 1 Başakşehir.
Where is Sivasspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Sivasspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 39% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sivasspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Başakşehir?
Record (3 meetings): Sivasspor 1W | Draws 0 | Başakşehir 2W.
What form are Sivasspor and Başakşehir in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Başakşehir (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sivasspor's attack rating (0.90) and Başakşehir's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Başakşehir's attack (0.94x) against Sivasspor's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 64/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
39%
2.57
28%
3.54
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.30
1.09
Başakşehir xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
10%
10.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.9 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.09 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sivasspor come into this having played 63 games, going 22W 18D 23L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Başakşehir sit at 1.73 PPG from 63 outings (32W 13D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Sivasspor against 1.73 for Başakşehir. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sivasspor's home form reads 10W 13D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Başakşehir have taken 1.43 points per game from 30 outings (11W 10D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sivasspor are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.44 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 22W 18D 23L in their last 63 games (1.33 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 32W 13D 18L in their last 63 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.43 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Sivasspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sivasspor have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Başakşehir have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sivasspor have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Sivasspor
1
Draws
6
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Başakşehir?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 1, Başakşehir have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2025, when Başakşehir 1-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 63%, Başakşehir 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sivasspor) and 43% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Sivasspor's games and 57% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Sivasspor's recent games and 43% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sivasspor and Başakşehir share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor and Başakşehir finished level at 1-1 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.21 xG and Başakşehir 1.09 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.90 / defence 0.89 against Başakşehir attack 0.94 / defence 0.81, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 39% | Draw 28% | Başakşehir 33%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 57%, Başakşehir 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Başakşehir's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.33 PPG, Başakşehir 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.