Sivasspor 0-2 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sivasspor and Başakşehir meet at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sivasspor have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Sivasspor's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sivasspor are significantly better at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Başakşehir's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Başakşehir away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Başakşehir arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sivasspor, 1 for Başakşehir and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Başakşehir winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sivasspor half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Başakşehir half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 64% versus Başakşehir 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 52% | Başakşehir 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.24 xG and Başakşehir 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 1.043 / defence 1.152 | Başakşehir attack 0.897 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.217. Data: 31 Sivasspor games / 31 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 35% | Draw 29% | Başakşehir 36%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Başakşehir 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Başakşehir if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 70% | Başakşehir 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 35% | Draw 29% | Başakşehir 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Sivasspor 1.24 / Başakşehir 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 1.043 / def 1.152 | Başakşehir attack 0.897 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Başakşehir xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Sivasspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Başakşehir?
Sivasspor 0 - 2 Başakşehir.
Where is Sivasspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Sivasspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 35% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sivasspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Başakşehir?
Record (1 meetings): Sivasspor 0W | Draws 0 | Başakşehir 1W.
What form are Sivasspor and Başakşehir in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sivasspor's attack rating (1.04) and Başakşehir's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Başakşehir's attack (0.90x) against Sivasspor's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
35%
2.85
29%
3.47
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.50
1.26
Başakşehir xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
10%
10.03
10%
9.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.8 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.26 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sivasspor come into this having played 31 games, going 10W 11D 10L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Başakşehir sit at 1.61 PPG from 31 outings (15W 5D 11L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Sivasspor against 1.61 for Başakşehir. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sivasspor's home form reads 5W 8D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Başakşehir have taken 1.27 points per game from 15 outings (5W 4D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sivasspor are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.39 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Current Season
Başakşehir
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 10W 11D 10L in their last 31 games (1.32 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 15W 5D 11L in their last 31 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.53 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Başakşehir have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sivasspor have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Sivasspor
1
Draws
6
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Başakşehir?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 1, Başakşehir have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2025, when Başakşehir 1-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 67%, Başakşehir 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sivasspor) and 53% (Başakşehir).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sivasspor's games and 60% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Sivasspor's recent games and 53% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sivasspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Sivasspor 0-2 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.24 xG and Başakşehir 1.26 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sivasspor fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 1.04 / defence 1.15 against Başakşehir attack 0.90 / defence 0.96, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 35% | Draw 29% | Başakşehir 36%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 52%, Başakşehir 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Başakşehir's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.32 PPG, Başakşehir 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.