Sivasspor 2-1 Altay – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Altay fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Altay make the trip to Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu to face Sivasspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 March 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Form
Sivasspor (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sivasspor at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Altay's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Altay have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Sivasspor against 1.10 for Altay. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sivasspor lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sivasspor half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Altay half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 62% versus Altay 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 48% | Altay 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.33 xG and Altay 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.998 / defence 1.136 | Altay attack 0.644 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.237. Data: 29 Sivasspor games / 29 Altay games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 46% | Draw 29% | Altay 25%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Altay 4.00. Sivasspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sivasspor are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sivasspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Sivasspor 70% | Altay 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Altay | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 46% | Draw 29% | Altay 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Sivasspor 1.33 / Altay 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.998 / def 1.136 | Altay attack 0.644 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Altay xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Altay kick off?
Sivasspor vs Altay kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Altay?
Sivasspor 2 - 1 Altay.
Where is Sivasspor vs Altay being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Altay part of?
Sivasspor vs Altay is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Altay?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 46% chance of winning, Altay a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Altay?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sivasspor and Altay will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Altay have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Altay?
Record (1 meetings): Sivasspor 0W | Draws 1 | Altay 0W.
What form are Sivasspor and Altay in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Altay (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sivasspor's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Altay's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Altay's attack (0.64x) against Sivasspor's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.49
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.24
0.91
Altay xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
7%
15.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.9 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Altay?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Altay expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Sivasspor and 0.91 for Altay, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Altay?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 29 outings, Sivasspor have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 9W 10D 10L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Altay's form line: 8W 5D 16L from 29 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Sivasspor against 1.00 for Altay. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sivasspor have posted 1.43 PPG from 14 outings (4W 8D 2L).
On the road, Altay have gone 2W 3D 9L from 14 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sivasspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sivasspor are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Altay are on 1.03 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Current Season
Altay
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Altay in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 9W 10D 10L in their last 29 games (1.28 PPG), while Altay have gone 8W 5D 16L in their last 29 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Altay away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.43 PPG; Altay away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sivasspor
1
Draws
0
Altay
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Altay?
From 2 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 1, Altay have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Altay last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2022, when Sivasspor 2-1 Altay.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Altay?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Altay see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 64%, Altay 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sivasspor) and 50% (Altay).
On the defensive side: Altay in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Altay away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Altay?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Sivasspor's games and 50% of Altay's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Altay usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Sivasspor's recent games and 50% of Altay's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Altay tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Altay in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sivasspor edge out Altay 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Altay 2-1 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.33 xG and Altay 0.91 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 1.00 / defence 1.14 against Altay attack 0.64 / defence 1.10, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 46% | Draw 29% | Altay 25%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 48%, Altay 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Altay's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.28 PPG, Altay 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sivasspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.