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Sivasspor and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, as Sivasspor and Alanyaspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.23 xG and Alanyaspor 0.87 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.88 / defence 0.94 against Alanyaspor attack 0.76 / defence 0.88, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 42% | Draw 34% | Alanyaspor 24%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 51%, Alanyaspor 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sivasspor's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Alanyaspor's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.33 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights