🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Sivasspor run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Adana Demirspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sivasspor beat Adana Demirspor 5-1 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.99 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.31 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Sivasspor beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 1.01 / defence 1.08 against Adana Demirspor attack 1.02 / defence 1.19, drawn from 65/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 53% | Draw 22% | Adana Demirspor 25%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 52%, Adana Demirspor 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sivasspor's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Adana Demirspor's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sivasspor arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sivasspor (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights