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Dominant Trabzonspor run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Samsunspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Trabzonspor beat Samsunspor 0-3 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.11 xG and Trabzonspor 1.38 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Samsunspor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Trabzonspor outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.78 / defence 0.85 against Trabzonspor attack 1.26 / defence 1.09, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 26% | Draw 34% | Trabzonspor 39%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 46%, Trabzonspor 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Samsunspor's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Trabzonspor's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.68 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights