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Prediction vindicated as Samsunspor edge out Trabzonspor 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Samsunspor beat Trabzonspor 2-1 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 2.01 xG and Trabzonspor 1.16 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 1.16 / defence 0.94 against Trabzonspor attack 1.02 / defence 1.08, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 55% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 20%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 44%, Trabzonspor 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Samsunspor's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Trabzonspor's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.35 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights