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Prediction vindicated as Samsunspor edge out Sivasspor 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Samsunspor beat Sivasspor 1-0 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 36, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 2.16 xG and Sivasspor 1.03 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Samsunspor fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Sivasspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 1.04 / defence 1.00 against Sivasspor attack 0.82 / defence 1.31, drawn from 71/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 63% | Draw 20% | Sivasspor 17%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 46%, Sivasspor 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Samsunspor's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Sivasspor's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.41 PPG, Sivasspor 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Samsunspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights