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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Samsunspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu plays host to Samsunspor versus Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 31 January 2027 at 18:00 UTC.

Form

Samsunspor (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Samsunspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Samsunspor's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Rizespor have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rizespor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Rizespor away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Samsunspor's favour (1.90 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Samsunspor 2W, Rizespor 3W, 1D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2026, ended 1–4 with Rizespor winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Samsunspor — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Rizespor — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 62% versus Rizespor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 56% | Rizespor 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.87 xG and Rizespor 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 1.066 / defence 0.946 | Rizespor attack 0.979 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Samsunspor games / 34 Rizespor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Samsunspor 54% | Draw 26% | Rizespor 19%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Rizespor 5.26. Samsunspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Samsunspor are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Samsunspor if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Samsunspor 50% | Rizespor 50%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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