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Samsunspor and Rizespor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Samsunspor and Rizespor finished level at 1-1 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.38 xG and Rizespor 1.41 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.94 / defence 0.91 against Rizespor attack 1.18 / defence 1.09, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 34% | Draw 31% | Rizespor 35%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 53%, Rizespor 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Samsunspor's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Rizespor's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights