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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Samsunspor and Konyaspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Samsunspor and Konyaspor finished level at 2-2 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.15 xG and Konyaspor 1.03 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Samsunspor beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Konyaspor outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.73 / defence 0.95 against Konyaspor attack 0.93 / defence 1.17, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 36% | Draw 35% | Konyaspor 29%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 48%, Konyaspor 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Samsunspor's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Konyaspor's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Samsunspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights