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Prediction vindicated as Samsunspor edge out Kayserispor 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Samsunspor beat Kayserispor 2-1 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 0.81 xG and Kayserispor 0.76 xG, a combined 1.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Samsunspor beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.64 / defence 0.90 against Kayserispor attack 0.70 / defence 0.95, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 30% | Draw 42% | Kayserispor 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. The actual Samsunspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 48%, Kayserispor 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Samsunspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Kayserispor's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights